Dillon Brooks is uncertain about staying and leaving? Deeply analyze the tactical logic behind the Rockets forward-line reshuffle and the choice of youth

1. From "key puzzle" to "letting go and leaving doubts": Dillon's role changes in the Rockets

(I) Strategic value in the early stage of joining In the offseason in 2023, in order to solve the problem of excessive rejuvenation of the lineup, the Rockets signed Dillon Brooks for 4 years and $86 million. As one of the few tough forwards in the team with playoff experience at that time, Dillon quickly became a starting small forward. His average of 14.1 points and 39.7% three-point shooting percentage, combined with his top outside defense ability, became an important puzzle for the team to jump from the lottery zone to the second in the West. Especially in the key battle, Dillon's defensive resilience and big heart three-pointers (such as scoring 25 points against the 76ers and leaving the court with 6 fouls), was called "the concreteness of team culture" by coach Uduka.

(II) The realistic dilemma of the 2025 offseason However, as the Rockets' "younger strategy" enters the deep waters, 29-year-old Dillon faces severe challenges. This season, his real shooting percentage is still at the forefront of the team, but his tactical position has retreated from core rotation to "Efficiency 3D". More importantly, the team's salary structure and future plans show that Dillon's salary of $21.4 million in the 2025-26 season will conflict with the contract renewal space of rookies such as Smith Jr. and Amen Thompson, becoming the core contradiction of management's trade-offs.

2. The rookie storm is coming: Which young people are dividing Dillon's playing time?

(I) Direct competitors in the starting position

1. Tari Ethan: The rise of defensive vanguards Ethan averaged 12 points and 6.4 rebounds per game this season, with a defensive efficiency of 109.2, ranking among the top three in the team, especially at marking the opponent's core forward line. Uduka made it clear: "A healthy Ethan is the future of our forward defensive system." Its 3D attributes are highly overlapping with Dillon, and its age (24 years old) has long-term training value. It is expected that the playing time will increase from 24 minutes to 30+ minutes next season.

2. Amen Thompson: The misalignment advantage of multi-functional forward guards. As the No. 4 show in 2024, Amen subverts traditional rotation with the "front control" attribute of 198cm tall and 213cm wingspan. This season's regular season, his comprehensive performance of 14.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game, as well as his oppressive defense against the ball holder, made Uduka try to put him in the third position. Data shows that when Amen and Dillon were on the court at the same time, the team's offense and defense efficiency declined, indicating that the two positions overlap and irreconcilable.

(II) Time Raiders on the bench

1. Whitmore: The scoring impact of the violent front line. The No. 20 pick in 2023 in the first round, Whitmore broke out this season, averaging 9.4 points and 3 rebounds per game, and a shooting percentage of 44.4%. His breakthrough finishing ability (68% shooting percentage at the basket) fills Dillon's dribble shortcomings. The media predicts that if Dillon leaves the team, Whitmore will directly take over the 15-20-minute rotation time.

2. Potential rookies strengthen: "Dillon's substitute" with the No. 10 pick. The Rockets have the No. 10 pick in the first round of 2025. Experts are generally optimistic about taking out Carter Bryant, who is 203cm tall and has a defensive rating SS. The player template is "Enhanced Version of OG Anunobi", which is perfectly adapted to Uduka's "Unlimited Defense Exchange" system. Once you join, it will directly squeeze Dillon's tactical survival space.

3. The triple logic of the decline in tactical status: deep contradictions outside data

(I) The mismatch between age and team reconstruction cycle Dillon was 29 years old, but the Rockets' core framework (Green 23 years old, Smith 22 years old, Amen 21 years old) is expected to enter the maturity stage in the next three years. The management clearly stated that "it will not provide long contracts for 28+ players." Referring to Van Vreet (31 years old, team option in 2025, contract expiry in 2026), Dillon's contract cost-effectiveness (64 million in the remaining three years) is inversely proportional to the age dividend, becoming the core incentive for transaction negotiations.

(II) Functional single-in-one on the offensive end Although Dillon's three-point shooting percentage is at the top level at 39.7%, his offensive methods rely highly on fixed-point shooting (accounting for 68%), and his singles efficiency (0.89 points per round) ranks second to the league. When the Rockets needed to develop key ball rights for Green and Smith, Dillon's "non-endpoint" positioning led to his gradual abandonment during the final period.

(III) The need for upgrading the defensive system. Data shows that Dillon's opponent's three-point shooting percentage is only 34.2% when defending, but his movement weaknesses are obvious when facing the advantageous front line (such as Antetokounmpo and Leonard). As the Rockets' goal shifts to the championship, Uduka prefers the "mobile forward group" configuration: the combination of Ethan + Amen + Whitmore can achieve unlimited defense switching at 1-4 positions, while Dillon's "heavy 3D" attributes are gradually marginalized in the era of space-based basketball.

4. The choice of stay or leave: The three major considerations of Rockets management

(I) Short-term championship vs. long-term team building If Dillon is retained, his combat power can ensure a place in the Western Conference playoffs next season, but it will compress the growth space of rookies (especially Amen's tactical training); if traded in exchange for draft picks or functional puzzles (such as frame protection centers), it may affect the combat power of the 2025-26 season. Referring to the lessons learned from losing to the Nuggets in the Western Conference semifinals this season, the management is more inclined to "try and error younger" to pave the way for the release of salary space in 2027.

(II) Contract value and trading market positioning. Dillon's remaining contracts are fully guaranteed, and there is no team option in 2026, but its 3D attributes are still favored by teams competing for championships (such as the Bucks and Celtics need outside defense vanguards). The Rockets may follow the 2024 Gordon trading model and send it to the playoff team that needs veterans before the mid-season trading deadline in exchange for a first round pick + expiration contract.

(III) The hidden influence of locker room culture. Dillon's tough style of football was once the Rockets' "de-split and rotten" spiritual totem, but his conflict with the referee (such as after being expelled in the 2024 regular season) and disputes on ball rights distribution. Management needs to weigh: When the team has established a winning culture, is it still necessary for this "thorny veteran" to be the spiritual bond?

5. Conclusion: Dillon's fate reflects the key turning point in Rockets' reconstruction

From "betting on the future with high salaries" to "rectifying and leaving rationally", Dillon Brooks' stay and leave is essentially a microcosm of the Rockets' strategic move from "showing bad-reconstruction" to "winning championship-sustainability". Whether you finally choose a deal or renewal, the core logic of the management is always clear: to make room for the seven sons of Houston (Green, Smith, Ethan, Amen, Whitmore, Thompson, Shepard) to create a younger championship lineup that conforms to the salary structure and the trend of the times. For Dillon, perhaps leaving is not a failure - in the business logic of the NBA, becoming a "springboard" for the rise of young people is also another footnote to the value of veterans. Do you think the Rockets should leave Dillon's experience or let go of new players? Welcome to share your views in the comment section.