League compensation? 1.8% chance of drawing the No. 1 pick, when will the NBA script kill be stopped?

On May 13, the 2025 NBA lottery ceremony ended with a surprise comparable to a Hollywood script - the Dallas Mavericks drew the No. 1 pick with the lowest probability in history of only 1.8%, while the Spurs, 76ers, and Hornets ranked second, Tanhua and No. 4. This dramatic reversal instantly ignited the public opinion field, and the "Union Compensation Theory" was rumored to be rumored. After the Mavericks reached a deal with the Lakers in February to send Luca Doncic away, they were accused of laying the groundwork for this "draw miracle". The US media NBA University even posted a photo of NBA president Adam Xiaohua and wrote: "Send Luca to our largest city, we will give you Flag." As soon as this statement came out, conspiracy theories were rampant. Mavericks general manager Nick Harrison went from being "sprayed by fans to "being questioned behind closed doors after winning the No. 1 pick" and the public opinion trend completed a dramatic reversal within 48 hours.

Faced with overwhelming doubts, Mavericks CEO Rick Wilz responded bitterly at the draw site: "I am the only person in this room who was at the draw site 40 years ago. When Patrick Ewing won the No. 1 pick, I was presided over the ceremony, and the 'conspiracy theory' has been with him since then." He tried to calm the controversy with his personal experience, but instead made the "strange coincidence" between history and reality more mysterious. In 2019, the Pelicans won the No. 1 pick with a 6% chance, and then traded Anthony Davis to the Lakers; in 2025, the Mavericks won the No. 1 pick after trading Doncic in 2025. If Cooper Flag (the mock draft prediction of the No. 1 pick), the two historical trajectories overlap like a mirror. James once recalled the Cavaliers' draw in the No. 1 pick in the podcast and said bluntly: "When the Cavaliers were first called, I knew... the league needed LeBron to stay in Cleveland." Now that Doncic turned to the Lakers, the Mavericks won the lottery immediately. Is history repeating?

But the lottery mechanism itself may be the source of dispute. Although the NBA lottery draw introduces a table tennis probability system, low-probability team counterattack cases occur frequently: the Pelicans have a 6% chance of winning the lottery in 2019, and the Cavaliers have a 2.8% chance of winning the No. 1 pick in 2011... The recurrence of these "low-probability events" has made "routine upset" an unsolved mystery in the hearts of fans. Although the probability of winning the lottery this time is the fourth lowest in history, it is not an isolated case - the probability of winning the lottery in 2019 is only higher than that of the Mavericks this year. The "40-year history of conspiracy theories" mentioned by Werz is a microcosm of the eternal game between the transparency of the league's lottery mechanism and the trust of fans.

If the Mavericks eventually retain the No. 1 pick and choose Flag, they will form the "three No. 1 picks formation" next season with Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis and the new No. 1 pick. But what is more thought-provoking than the lineup is the league ecology exposed by this storm - when a team quickly gets a high pick after trading core players, whether it is hidden secrets, it is enough to shake fans' belief in "fair competition". As James said, "I understand the reason." In the delicate balance of commercial interests and competitive sports, the truth may always be hidden behind the fog of data and probability, and this storm caused by 1.8% probability is destined to be one of the most controversial lottery events in NBA history.