May 8th Europa League semi-final second leg: Fiorentina vs Betis Event Analysis

1. Fundamental Analysis

Fiorentina (home team)

Recent status: 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in the last 10 games, but recently suffered two consecutive losses in various competitions (including 1-2 losses to Betis in the first leg), lack of stability on the defensive end, and conceded 3 goals in the last 2 games.

Home performance: He has remained unbeaten in the last 5 home games with 3 wins and 2 draws. He has a strong home momentum, but he has frequent defensive mistakes when facing a strong team, and his success rate of high-altitude balls is only 51%.

Injury impact: midfielder core Mandragora, defender Danilo Qatardi and others are absent due to injury, and the starting point of counterattack is limited.

Betis (visit team)

Recent status: 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the last 10 games, 4 consecutive victories in all competitions, 2-1 at home in the first leg, and you only need to be unbeaten to advance in this game. His away performance was particularly strong, scoring 22 goals in his last 10 away games, averaging 2.4 goals per game.

Offensive core: Winner Anthony, who was loaned from Manchester United, is in a hot state, contributing 3 goals in the last 4 games, breaking the Fiorentina goal in the first leg, and has a threat of counterattack.

Lineup Hidden Hazards: Main players such as defender Diego Llorente and midfielder Mark Rocca were injured, and the stability of the defense line was questionable.

2. Key showdowns and tactical highlights

Midfield control and counterattack efficiency

Fiorentina relies on wing breakthroughs and rapid counterattacks, but the decline in midfield interception ability may put pressure on the defense line.

Betis mainly uses a 4-2-3-1 formation, with midfielder Cardoso's steals (2.1 times per game) and midfielder Isco's creativity, and is good at creating threats through set pieces (6 corner kicks in the first leg).

Defensive loopholes and physical fitness factors

Fiorentina has conceded goals in the last five games, and its high-altitude defense is weak, while Betis has also conceded goals in each of the last five games, and both sides have hidden dangers in the defense line.

Florence just experienced a fierce battle in Serie A mid-week and had only had 3 days off, and his physical fitness may be at a disadvantage; Betis is waiting for his work and is more adaptable to high-intensity rhythm.

3. Data and odds analysis

Initial odds: The home team gave 0.25 goals, but the support side was biased towards Betis' unbeaten.

Big and big goals: The mainstream institutions have scored 2.5 goals, and the two teams have not scored their opponents in the last 6 games, and the number of goals is expected to be large.

Corner Boot Prediction: Betis has a 6-2 corner kick in the first leg, but Fiorentina may strengthen its offensive at home, and the total number of corner kicks may exceed.

4. Forecast and Recommendation

Winning and Loss Forecast: Betis is unbeaten (probability is about 60%)

The psychological advantage in the first round is obvious, and he is in better shape recently. He only needs to defend the draw away to advance. Although Fiorentina is strong at home, the defense line issue may be defeated by the opponent's counterattack.

score reference: 1-1 (draw promotion) or 1-2 (Betis wins).

Betting Strategy:

Handicap Winning, Drawing, Losing: Handicap Loss (Betis takes 0.25 goals).

Total goals: 2/3 goals.

5. Risk warning

If Fiorentina succeeds in the opening game, it may reverse the situation; if Betis concedes the goal too early, he needs to adjust the tactics to balance the offense and defense.

The referee's penalty standard may affect the rhythm of the game. Fiorentina has a large number of yellow cards recently and needs to be paid attention to.

Conclusion: Based on the fighting intention, status and data, Betis is more likely to advance to the final with an unbeaten record. It is recommended to pay attention to the away team's unbeaten and big ball options.

Focus on total goals: 2/3 goals