8-12 First round of the British League Cup West Bromwich (West Brown) vs Derby County

⚽ 1. Pre-match background and promotion situation

The importance of the tournament

Both teams have been eliminated in the early stages of the British League Cup in recent years: West Brom lost to Fleetwood and Stoke City in the first rounds in the past two sessions; Derby County failed to advance to the second round only once in the last nine sessions (lost to Blackpool in the 2023-24 season). This game is a key battle at the beginning of the season, and the winner will boost morale and strive for the depth of the Cup.

Promotion rules

Single-game elimination system, and a regular time draw will enter overtime + penalty kick. Derby County has the advantage in the first round (historical psychological advantage), so it only needs to be unbeaten in this game to advance; West Brom must win at least 1 goal, and tactical choices will be more inclined to attack.

2. Comparison of the team's recent status

West Bromwich (home team)

League start: The first round of the Championship defeated Blackburn 1-0, and Isaac Price won the ball, but the ball possession rate was only 44%.

Warm-up performance: 3 wins and 2 losses, including 3-2 wins in Vallecano, but the defensive problems were exposed (conceding 4 goals against Lincoln City).

Home Momentum: Three consecutive home wins in the official game, with only one goal in the last 9 home games.

Core data:

Average 4.1 positive shots, possession rate of 54.9%

The winning rate of 50% in the last 10 games (3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses)

Derby County (visitor team) 369

The start of the league: Losing Stoke City 1-3 away, possession rate as low as 32%, and shooting only 2 positive shots.

Warm-up performance: 3 wins and 2 losses, but most of the opponents are low-level teams (such as defeating Athens AEK and drawing Solihull).

away weak: only 2 away games in the English Championship last season, conceding 1.5+ goals per game.

Core data:

Average 3.0 shots per game, possession rate of 37.5%

The winning rate of 40% in the last 10 games (4 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses)

The following table is a comparison of the key indicators of offense and defense between the two teams in the recent past:

Indicators

West Bromwich

Derbyshire

Goals per game

1.67

1.2

goals conceded per game

1.4

1.0

possession rate

54.9%

37.5%

shots on the right/game

4.1

3.0

Home/away winning rate

67% (Last 6 home games)

50% (Last 6 away games)

3. Injuries and lineup key points

West Brom injury

Only forward Josh Maja was absent due to a calf injury, and the main frame was complete.

Core Player: Windman Tom Fellows (2 goals and 3 assists) leads the wing break; midfielder Isaac Price (2 goals) provides the threat.

Derby County Injury

Defense line crisis: 4 guards were injured, including main center back Curtis Nelson (torn knee ligament) and two players recovering after surgery.

Offensive Reliance: Forward Jerry Yates (3 goals) takes on scoring tasks, but supports are limited.

⚙️ 4. Tactical game and victory and loss key

West Brom's strategy: ball control and suppression + cross from the wing

coach Corberán continued to use the 4-2-3-1 formation, stretching the width through wingers Ferros and Callum Styles, combined with a set piece (head score of 30%).

Hidden danger: The full-back chases slowly (the warm-up game averages 4.1 times), and is easily broken by counterattacks.

Derby County Strategy: Defensive counterattack + mid-lane straight pass

coach Eustace uses a compact defense of 4-2-3-1, relying on Yates' speed and winger's personal breakthrough (51% success rate of straight passes in the ribs).

Shortcomings: strong interception of double back midfielders but weak creativity, low positional combat efficiency; insufficient substitute depth may affect physical fitness in the second half.

Historical confrontations suppressed

Derby County won all its last five encounters, including a 3-1 reversal of West Brom in April 2025.

English League Cup matches Derby County 2 wins and 1 loss, and eliminated its opponent 1-0 in 2022.

5. Score prediction

Winning tendency

Mainstream organization West Brom loses 2.05-2.10, Derby County loses 3.50-3.75. Home court advantage and lineup integrity support the home team's popularity.

High probability score: West Brom 2-1 (combining the edge advantage and the defense loophole) or 1-0 (if Derby County defends dead).

Key nodes of tactical angle

First half: If West Brom scores early through set pieces (the probability is high), he may control the game and consume; if Derby County scores first, it will trigger a strong attack on the home team but its own defense is under pressure.

70 minutes later: West Brom's running efficiency may drop by 15%. If Derby County withstands the previous pressure, the chances of counterattacking will increase.

Betting strategy reference

Conservative choice: West Brom is unbeaten

High risk and high return: West Brom wins half of the game/win (opposses about 3.40)

Goal gameplay: The probability of both sides scoring is about 60%, but Derby County needs to be cautious when it is weak in offense.

Summary: West Brom has a slightly advantage, but Derby County may be resilient and surprise

West Brom has a slightly higher probability of promotion with his home momentum, ball control ability and Derby County defense injury (55%)